Thu, Nov 3, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 2, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 19 | 113 | 230 |
| DAL | 08 | 28 | 411 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:35DALPatrick EavesAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Deflected, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 11:26STLPaul StastnyAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Alexander Steen · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 11:57DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 3:40DALStephen JohnsGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Johnny Oduya · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 5:36DALJason SpezzaPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Esa Lindell · Backhand, 0.40 xG1–4
- P3 10:27STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Paul Stastny, Dmitrij Jaskin · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 16:30DALJohn KlingbergENAssists: Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.50 xG2–5
- P3 16:47DALJordie BennAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Lauri Korpikoski · Slap, 0.03 xG2–6
Penalties (18)
- P1 3:31STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:11DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:11STLKevin Shattenkirk: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:11STLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:11DALAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:08DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:11DALStephen Johns: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:11STLJoel Edmundson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:32STLJoel Edmundson: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:32DALCurtis McKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:33STLJoel Edmundson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:40STLJoel Edmundson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:10DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:10DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:30STLKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:41DALJordie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:41STLKyle Brodziak: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:56DALDan Hamhuis: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Jaskin – Fabbri11:50
xG 0.40–0.12 (78%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:29
xG 0.29–0.33 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Yakupov5:20
xG 0.01–0.09 (13%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Steen – Berglund – Perron10:57
xG 0.21–0.55 (27%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Gunnarsson9:25
xG 0.55–0.01 (97%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Pietrangelo2:31
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Parayko10:30
xG 0.25–0.23 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Roussel – Faksa4:31
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin11:25
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Cracknell – McKenzie – Smith5:51
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Ritchie – Shore2:24
xG 0.01–0.01 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Benn12:24
xG 0.56–0.31 (65%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell13:30
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Oduya – Johns14:06
xG 0.21–0.62 (25%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).