Thu, Nov 3, 2016·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 03 | 111 | 01 | 223 |
| LAK | 012 | 15 | 18 | 12 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:28PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 5:25LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Kyle Clifford, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 2:14LAKMatt GreeneAssists: Jeff Carter · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 9:28PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 2:37LAKNic DowdGWGAssists: Tanner Pearson, Alec Martinez · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:22PITPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:14LAKDrew Doughty: Holding2 min
- P2 6:29PITPhil Kessel: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:03LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:09LAKMatt Greene: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:53PITMatt Cullen: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Hagelin13:57
xG 0.95–0.19 (83%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Sestito4:46
xG 0.01–0.07 (14%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Malkin – Kessel12:40
xG 0.33–0.42 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Bonino – Rust – Wilson9:45
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin15:07
xG 0.76–0.47 (62%)attempts 10–16goals 2–2
- Cole – Schultz11:31
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Letang – Maatta2:08
xG 0.05–0.04 (59%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Clifford – Shore8:15
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Brown – Setoguchi – Dowd11:29
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Carter – King – Toffoli10:03
xG 0.49–0.59 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Kopitar – Purcell – Pearson12:05
xG 0.24–0.39 (38%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez16:28
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Greene – Gravel8:27
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Doughty – Forbort19:52
xG 0.33–0.92 (26%)attempts 17–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).