Fri, Nov 4, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Montréal Canadiens 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 10
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 013 | 09 | 030 |
| CBJ | 316 | 516 | 28 | 1040 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:56CBJCam AtkinsonPPGWGAssists: Nick Foligno, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 11:54CBJSeth JonesAssists: Josh Anderson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 14:06CBJDavid SavardAssists: Markus Nutivaara · Snap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 4:01CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Sam Gagner, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.47 xG0–4
- P2 10:12CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–5
- P2 11:53CBJScott HartnellPPAssists: Boone Jenner, Brandon Dubinsky · Tip-in, 0.38 xG0–6
- P2 13:39CBJNick FolignoAssists: Brandon Saad, Alexander Wennberg · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG0–7
- P2 18:32CBJJosh AndersonAssists: William Karlsson, Jack Johnson · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–8
- P3 8:06CBJScott HartnellAssists: Seth Jones, Zach Werenski · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–9
- P3 10:45CBJJosh AndersonAssists: Matt Calvert, William Karlsson · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–10
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:58MTLMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:24MTLDavid Desharnais: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:34CBJSergei Bobrovsky: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:08MTLAlexei Emelin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:13MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 12:26CBJBrandon Saad: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:26MTLBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Galchenyuk – Lehkonen10:07
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 17–7goals 0–2
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Shaw2:26
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Shaw2:03
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher8:45
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Pateryn7:22
xG 0.16–0.01 (93%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Weber – Emelin9:41
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Weber – Beaulieu7:15
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Karlsson – Anderson11:27
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 3–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Sedlak10:31
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg8:30
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner12:38
xG 0.16–0.55 (22%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Nutivaara13:30
xG 0.75–0.03 (96%)attempts 18–4goals 2–0
- Jones – Werenski13:58
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 13–20goals 2–0
- Johnson – Murray16:17
xG 0.61–0.78 (44%)attempts 13–23goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).