Sat, Nov 5, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 29 | 015 | 214 | 438 |
| MTL | 28 | 13 | 26 | 517 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06MTLAndrei MarkovUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 4:32PHIChris VandeVeldeUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 8:30PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Jakub Voracek, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P1 9:09MTLGreg PaterynAssists: Paul Byron, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 18:38MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Alexander Radulov, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 3:52MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 9:16PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 10:57MTLTomas PlekanecSHGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 16:16PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Ivan Provorov, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:38MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Holding2 min
- P2 3:57MTLAlexander Radulov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:49PHIRadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P3 4:23PHIJakub Voracek: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:31MTLAndrew Shaw: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 14:34MTLTorrey Mitchell: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:45PHIMichael Del Zotto: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Konecny8:51
xG 0.77–0.45 (63%)attempts 16–8goals 1–3
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov6:28
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Giroux – Simmonds – Raffl11:49
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Weise – Schenn – Read9:20
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gostisbehere14:17
xG 0.86–0.47 (64%)attempts 22–7goals 1–2
- Manning – Gudas13:48
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Streit – Provorov10:43
xG 0.35–0.60 (36%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher11:45
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Byron – Shaw8:27
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- Mitchell – Danault – Flynn7:33
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
- Radulov – Danault – Galchenyuk2:27
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Emelin17:40
xG 0.50–0.40 (55%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Markov – Petry12:29
xG 0.55–0.55 (50%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
- Pateryn – Beaulieu12:01
xG 0.34–0.56 (38%)attempts 9–19goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).