Sat, Nov 5, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 03 | 17 | 010 | 01 | 121 |
| STL | 08 | 015 | 15 | 12 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:55CBJJosh AndersonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 2:16STLJay BouwmeesterAssists: Scottie Upshall · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- OT 4:17STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:12STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:12CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:29STLAlex Pietrangelo: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 9:45STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:45CBJNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:41CBJCam Atkinson: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:46CBJMatt Calvert: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:16STLPaul Stastny: Interference2 min
- P3 7:16CBJJosh Anderson: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:07CBJJack Johnson: Charging2 min
- P3 13:01STLCarl Gunnarsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lehtera won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner8:51
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg9:52
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Sedlak6:31
xG 0.06–0.17 (27%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson9:35
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Nutivaara10:08
xG 0.36–0.13 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski15:27
xG 0.37–0.54 (41%)attempts 6–16goals 1–1
- Johnson – Murray13:15
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Brodziak – Reaves3:18
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:38
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Steen – Berglund – Perron10:04
xG 0.15–0.20 (42%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Stastny – Jaskin – Fabbri10:29
xG 0.09–0.40 (19%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo13:13
xG 0.68–0.40 (63%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Parayko2:15
xG 0.04–0.02 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson12:15
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).