Sat, Nov 5, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Nashville Predators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 19 | 17 | 01 | 1 | 325 |
| NSH | 18 | 15 | 011 | 03 | 0 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:44NSHJames NealAssists: Colin Wilson, Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 13:25CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Ryan Murphy · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 17:05NSHMatt IrwinAssists: Colton Sissons, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 8:22CARRon HainseySHAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 2. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 3. NSH Ryan Johansen stopped
- 4. CAR Teuvo Teravainen stopped
- 5. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 6. CAR Jaccob Slavin scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:46NSHYannick Weber: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:01NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:06CARVictor Rask: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:36NSHRyan Johansen: Elbowing2 min
- P3 7:07CARJustin Faulk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Lindholm – Aho4:52
xG 0.30–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom4:58
xG 0.11–0.01 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Teravainen – Lindholm8:09
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- McClement – Nestrasil – Di Giuseppe4:13
xG 0.04–0.04 (51%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce15:51
xG 0.54–0.08 (88%)attempts 21–7goals 0–1
- Murphy – Hanifin9:44
xG 0.14–0.37 (27%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Faulk19:06
xG 0.62–0.88 (41%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Johansen – Arvidsson12:53
xG 0.77–0.53 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Wilson – Smith12:47
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Jarnkrok – Forsberg – Fiala6:37
xG 0.05–0.04 (54%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Bass – Watson – Sissons7:43
xG 0.04–0.22 (14%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Irwin11:30
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 6–17goals 2–0
- Josi – Ellis16:15
xG 0.56–0.51 (52%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Subban – Ekholm17:41
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).