Sat, Nov 5, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 112 | 212 | 08 | 332 |
| DAL | 212 | 09 | 012 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:11CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
- P1 7:21DALBrett RitchieAssists: Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 9:49DALCurtis McKenzieAssists: Gemel Smith, Stephen Johns · Deflected, 0.31 xG1–2
- P2 2:59CHIRyan HartmanAssists: Tyler Motte, Marcus Kruger · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 7:40CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Artem Anisimov, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:31DALJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:00CHIMarcus Kruger: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:00DALPatrick Eaves: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:29DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:45CHIGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:21DALStephen Johns: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:22CHIArtemi Panarin: Holding2 min
- P2 13:52DALDevin Shore: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:52DALDevin Shore: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:04DALRadek Faksa: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:04CHIArtem Anisimov: Holding2 min
- P3 15:56DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:11CHIMarcus Kruger: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:11CHIMarcus Kruger: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Anisimov – Panarin9:07
xG 0.17–0.05 (77%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kruger – Motte – Hartman8:45
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Rasmussen – Schmaltz5:07
xG 0.04–0.06 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Panik8:17
xG 0.89–1.40 (39%)attempts 7–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Keith14:00
xG 0.96–0.86 (53%)attempts 15–19goals 2–2
- Keith – Hjalmarsson2:48
xG 0.03–0.06 (38%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Kempny10:23
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Ritchie – Faksa5:50
xG 0.69–0.14 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Cracknell – McKenzie – Smith6:54
xG 0.60–0.09 (87%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Spezza – Korpikoski – Shore5:56
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin13:43
xG 0.73–0.69 (51%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Johns11:18
xG 1.24–0.31 (80%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Benn11:59
xG 0.41–0.48 (47%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Lindell17:50
xG 0.65–1.08 (38%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).