Sun, Nov 6, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 1, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 110 | 07 | 123 |
| STL | 215 | 310 | 03 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:37STLRobby FabbriAssists: Dmitrij Jaskin, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 3:35STLJori LehteraGWGAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 6:38COLMatt DucheneAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Fedor Tyutin · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 14:54STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.33 xG1–3
- P2 17:03STLScottie UpshallAssists: Ryan Reaves, Kyle Brodziak · Slap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 19:06STLDavid PerronAssists: Colton Parayko, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 3:51COLMikhail Grigorenko: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:02STLKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 16:09COLFedor Tyutin: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:19STLJay Bouwmeester: Holding2 min
- P2 14:09COLPatrick Wiercioch: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:45STLDmitrij Jaskin: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:34STLJori Lehtera: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:07STLJori Lehtera: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:07COLAndreas Martinsen: Interference2 min
- P3 14:07STLAlexander Steen: Instigator2 min
- P3 14:07STLAlexander Steen: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:07STLAlexander Steen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:07COLAndreas Martinsen: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:33STLKyle Brodziak: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:33COLRene Bourque: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:33COLRene Bourque: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Bourque – Colborne – Grigorenko8:31
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Mitchell – McLeod – Martinsen3:57
xG 0.11–0.17 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Duchene – MacKinnon – Rantanen8:51
xG 0.37–0.46 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Iginla – Soderberg – Landeskog6:46
xG 0.24–0.46 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Tyutin6:43
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 4–5goals 1–2
- Johnson – Zadorov8:14
xG 0.23–0.12 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Wiercioch4:59
xG 0.14–0.17 (44%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Berglund – Perron9:33
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:04
xG 0.49–0.12 (80%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Stastny – Jaskin – Fabbri8:46
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves5:22
xG 0.10–0.19 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo13:54
xG 0.97–0.22 (82%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Shattenkirk3:03
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson4:55
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 2–5goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).