Sun, Nov 6, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 19 | 112 | 04 | 335 |
| CHI | 07 | 114 | 210 | 12 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:34DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Antoine Roussel, Patrick Eaves · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
- P2 8:29DALGemel SmithSHAssists: Dan Hamhuis · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 10:24CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 3:39CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 4:35CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–3
- P3 18:40DALGemel SmithAssists: John Klingberg, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 4:31CHIMarian HossaGWGAssists: Brent Seabrook, Artem Anisimov · Slap, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:55DALCurtis McKenzie: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:02DALDan Hamhuis: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:37CHIDuncan Keith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00CHIArtemi Panarin: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:24DALRadek Faksa: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:36DALAntoine Roussel: Broken stick2 min
- P3 3:02CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- OT 0:50CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Kruger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Roussel – Ritchie – Faksa9:13
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Cracknell – McKenzie – Smith10:06
xG 0.28–0.29 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin12:21
xG 0.14–0.17 (44%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Benn9:12
xG 0.34–0.05 (88%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Oduya – Johns12:55
xG 0.26–0.68 (28%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell15:02
xG 0.00–0.52 (0%)attempts 3–17goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Schmaltz8:23
xG 0.58–0.10 (85%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Kruger – Motte – Hartman5:02
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Hossa – Anisimov – Panarin11:47
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Rasmussen – Schmaltz3:54
xG 0.10–0.09 (51%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Keith15:01
xG 0.74–0.34 (68%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson2:04
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Kempny13:41
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).