Mon, Nov 7, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 0, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 013 | 05 | 014 | 032 |
| BOS | 012 | 315 | 115 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:44BOSBrad MarchandPPGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Matt Beleskey · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 10:12BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Torey Krug, Ryan Spooner · Slap, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 14:41BOSRiley NashUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P3 9:45BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Austin Czarnik, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:34BOSDominic Moore: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:29BUFRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:29BOSRyan Spooner: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:03BUFRyan O'Reilly: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:50BUFZemgus Girgensons: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 9:16BUFJake McCabe: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:16BUFJake McCabe: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:06BOSBrandon Carlo: Holding2 min
- P3 3:47BUFDerek Grant: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:50BOSMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:50BUFDerek Grant: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:50BUFDerek Grant: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Okposo – O'Reilly8:36
xG 0.21–0.04 (84%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ennis – Girgensons – Reinhart4:09
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson7:50
xG 0.32–0.40 (45%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Grant – Carrier – Baptiste5:08
xG 0.05–0.48 (9%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Kulikov9:10
xG 0.62–0.13 (83%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Franson – McCabe7:51
xG 0.38–0.42 (47%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- McCabe – Nelson8:18
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Krejci – Spooner10:25
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Moore – Schaller – Acciari5:20
xG 0.19–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak6:21
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Nash – Czarnik6:16
xG 0.17–0.32 (34%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug14:09
xG 0.84–0.55 (60%)attempts 24–14goals 1–0
- Chara – Carlo15:08
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Liles – Miller8:10
xG 0.33–0.48 (41%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).