Tue, Nov 8, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Carolina Hurricanes 2, New Jersey Devils 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 29 | 013 | 03 | 0 | 233 |
| NJD | 119 | 08 | 111 | 03 | 2 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:50NJDPA ParenteauAssists: Travis Zajac, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 4:23CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 17:31CARKlas DahlbeckUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 3:51NJDNick LappinAssists: Sergey Kalinin, Vernon Fiddler · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NJD PA Parenteau scored
- 2. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 3. NJD Jacob Josefson stopped
- 4. CAR Jaccob Slavin stopped
- 5. NJD Taylor Hall scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:57CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
- P2 2:40NJDMichael Cammalleri: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:05CARJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:44CARKlas Dahlbeck: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Rask – Lindholm13:56
xG 0.86–0.48 (64%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Di Giuseppe – Teravainen8:49
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- McClement – Stalberg – Aho7:16
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom11:30
xG 0.50–0.93 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Slavin – Pesce17:24
xG 0.71–0.91 (44%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Dahlbeck14:40
xG 0.56–0.97 (37%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Nakladal13:42
xG 0.33–0.75 (31%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Zajac – Hall14:29
xG 0.89–0.34 (72%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Kalinin – Lappin9:11
xG 0.80–0.27 (74%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Palmieri – Josefson3:16
xG 0.32–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Henrique – Bennett – Zacha3:37
xG 0.31–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Auvitu8:53
xG 1.06–0.10 (92%)attempts 10–2goals 2–0
- Quincey – Moore12:49
xG 0.67–0.47 (59%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Quincey – Auvitu2:50
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).