Tue, Nov 8, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Detroit Red Wings 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 010 | 113 | 03 | 1 | 335 |
| PHI | 16 | 08 | 19 | 02 | 0 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:28PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 8:42DETTomas TatarAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 6:51PHISean CouturierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Mark Streit · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–2
- P3 11:11DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
- 2. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. DET Frans Nielsen stopped
- 5. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 6. DET Andreas Athanasiou scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:33PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:14DETJustin Abdelkader: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:44PHIBrandon Manning: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:39DETJonathan Ericsson: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:39PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:40PHITravis Konecny: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:12DETDanny DeKeyser: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Athanasiou – Bertuzzi4:04
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Ott – Sheahan – Glendening4:46
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Helm – Larkin7:46
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar11:01
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Marchenko10:42
xG 0.67–0.37 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Green – DeKeyser17:49
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Smith13:16
xG 0.68–1.27 (35%)attempts 13–19goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Konecny15:30
xG 1.24–0.82 (60%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
- Weise – Schenn – Raffl9:17
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov7:13
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Giroux – Simmonds – Read10:21
xG 0.16–0.45 (27%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gostisbehere15:08
xG 0.97–0.25 (79%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Streit – Provorov15:52
xG 0.84–0.78 (52%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Manning – Gudas15:24
xG 0.42–0.86 (32%)attempts 13–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).