Tue, Nov 8, 2016·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Edmonton Oilers 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 211 | 112 | 05 | 328 |
| PIT | 19 | 114 | 29 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:57PITConor ShearyAssists: Bryan Rust · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 14:23EDMJordan EberleAssists: Connor McDavid, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 17:18EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Connor McDavid, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 3:20EDMJordan EberleAssists: Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 12:08PITCarl HagelinAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 5:33PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Phil Kessel, Chris Kunitz · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 18:18PITConor ShearyGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:21PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:01EDMEric Gryba: Interference2 min
- P1 19:00EDMMatt Benning: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:28EDMPatrick Maroon: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:43PITConor Sheary: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Eberle – McDavid13:58
xG 1.02–0.63 (62%)attempts 14–15goals 3–0
- Lucic – Pitlick – Draisaitl11:30
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
- Pouliot – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi9:51
xG 0.08–0.21 (27%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Letestu – Lander – Slepyshev6:07
xG 0.12–0.39 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Benning14:30
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Gryba – Nurse14:55
xG 0.55–0.64 (46%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Larsson – Klefbom16:27
xG 0.52–1.03 (34%)attempts 14–21goals 1–4
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Fehr – Wilson7:55
xG 0.36–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Hagelin12:11
xG 0.67–0.59 (53%)attempts 16–11goals 1–2
- Kunitz – Malkin – Kessel13:15
xG 0.48–0.48 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Bonino – Rust – Sheary8:37
xG 0.16–0.19 (45%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Maatta15:28
xG 0.90–0.31 (74%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Cole – Schultz10:17
xG 0.07–0.03 (71%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin17:54
xG 0.78–1.10 (41%)attempts 20–18goals 2–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).