Tue, Nov 8, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Los Angeles Kings 7, Toronto Maple Leafs 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 115 | 416 | 212 | 743 |
| TOR | 05 | 06 | 08 | 019 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:56LAKDustin BrownGWGAssists: Nic Dowd · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 3:23LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Anze Kopitar, Kevin Gravel · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 5:13LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Drew Doughty, Derek Forbort · Snap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 13:33LAKJeff CarterAssists: Dwight King, Matt Greene · Snap, 0.07 xG4–0
- P2 18:13LAKJeff CarterAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Derek Forbort · Snap, 0.53 xG5–0
- P3 15:59LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Derek Forbort · Tip-in, 0.06 xG6–0
- P3 19:13LAKDwight KingAssists: Trevor Lewis, Jake Muzzin · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG7–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:06TORNikita Zaitsev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:41TORRoman Polak: Holding2 min
- P2 9:47TORWilliam Nylander: Holding2 min
- P2 15:00LAKDevin Setoguchi: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:19TORNazem Kadri: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – King – Toffoli10:19
xG 0.94–0.13 (88%)attempts 9–5goals 3–0
- Brown – Setoguchi – Dowd9:34
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Shore11:35
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Purcell – Pearson10:42
xG 0.26–0.31 (46%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort15:50
xG 1.24–0.23 (84%)attempts 17–6goals 3–0
- Greene – Gravel13:56
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Martinez14:06
xG 0.40–0.59 (40%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews5:03
xG 0.21–0.11 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Soshnikov4:14
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Martin – Smith – Soshnikov5:19
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews5:16
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Carrick2:38
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Rielly – Carrick2:02
xG 0.01–0.12 (10%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Marincin – Carrick8:15
xG 0.28–0.43 (40%)attempts 8–11goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).