Tue, Nov 8, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 2, Winnipeg Jets 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 014 | 14 | 112 | 230 |
| WPG | 25 | 417 | 29 | 831 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:06WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 8:46WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Ben Chiarot, Paul Postma · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 1:30DALPatrick EavesPPAssists: Devin Shore, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 6:51WPGPatrik LainePPGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.53 xG1–3
- P2 10:07WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 17:09WPGMarko DanoPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Nic Petan · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–5
- P2 19:20WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Nic Petan, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–6
- P3 2:32DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Antoine Roussel, Patrick Eaves · Wrap-around, 0.25 xG2–6
- P3 13:49WPGAndrew CoppSHAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–7
- P3 18:16WPGAdam LowryAssists: Andrew Copp, Tyler Myers · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–8
Penalties (23)
- P1 5:41WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:41DALBrett Ritchie: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:00DALCurtis McKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:49WPGMark Scheifele: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:00DALTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:41DALAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:41DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:41WPGPatrik Laine: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:25DALJordie Benn: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:25DALCurtis McKenzie: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:41DALBrett Ritchie: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:58WPGChris Thorburn: Interference2 min
- P3 2:25WPGTyler Myers: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:25DALRadek Faksa: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:25WPGTyler Myers: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:02WPGChris Thorburn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:14WPGDustin Byfuglien: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:14WPGDustin Byfuglien: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:14DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:14WPGBrandon Tanev: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:14DALGemel Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:14WPGBrandon Tanev: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 19:14DALGemel Smith: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCracknell – McKenzie – Smith7:45
xG 0.55–0.24 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Cracknell – Roussel – Seguin3:10
xG 0.29–0.13 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Shore2:30
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin4:54
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell8:34
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Benn7:47
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Oduya – Johns12:31
xG 0.16–0.24 (41%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Petan – Connor8:33
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Dano6:51
xG 0.06–0.06 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev8:53
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Laine10:24
xG 0.45–0.55 (45%)attempts 10–12goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Myers11:28
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 11–11goals 3–0
- Byfuglien – Morrissey14:35
xG 0.22–0.57 (28%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Postma – Chiarot12:15
xG 0.19–0.55 (26%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).