Wed, Nov 9, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 2, St. Louis Blues 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 06 | 19 | 014 | 11 | 230 |
| STL | 08 | 08 | 112 | 00 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:22CHIMarian HossaAssists: Gustav Forsling, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P3 17:49STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- OT 0:25CHIArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Brent Seabrook, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:10STLKevin Shattenkirk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 4:34STLAlex Pietrangelo: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:10CHIAndrew Desjardins: Kneeing2 min
- P2 11:30CHIMarian Hossa: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:57STLDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:57CHIMichal Kempny: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:19CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:58STLPatrik Berglund: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:07STLScottie Upshall: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:07CHIArtemi Panarin: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:44STLRobby Fabbri: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:24STLAlex Pietrangelo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Anisimov – Panarin4:56
xG 0.42–0.06 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Desjardins – Rasmussen5:58
xG 0.26–0.16 (61%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Panik – Kruger – Hartman4:15
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Schmaltz5:20
xG 0.13–0.07 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Kempny10:10
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Forsling13:17
xG 0.59–0.61 (49%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson2:28
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Berglund – Perron10:32
xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Stastny – Tarasenko – Schwartz4:47
xG 0.29–0.03 (91%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Jaskin – Fabbri2:31
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves5:37
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:47
xG 0.89–0.48 (65%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Parayko – Lindbohm9:30
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson11:30
xG 0.08–0.59 (11%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).