Thu, Nov 10, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 17 | 07 | 14 | 218 |
| BOS | 411 | 111 | 010 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:29CBJNick FolignoAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 8:47BOSTorey KrugAssists: David Krejci, David Backes · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 9:55BOSMatt BeleskeyAssists: Austin Czarnik · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 12:24BOSAustin CzarnikAssists: Riley Nash, Matt Beleskey · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
- P1 12:48BOSTim SchallerGWGAssists: Dominic Moore · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 11:51BOSDavid BackesAssists: David Krejci, Ryan Spooner · Snap, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 8:40CBJSam GagnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:02BOSMatt Beleskey: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:19BOSRyan Spooner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:06CBJJosh Anderson: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:15CBJDalton Prout: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:10BOSMatt Beleskey: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Gagner – Sedlak4:21
xG 0.33–0.06 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gagner – Calvert – Milano2:48
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Sedlak – Anderson2:20
xG 0.07–0.18 (27%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Jenner – Milano4:29
xG 0.05–0.20 (19%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Werenski2:32
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Murray12:57
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 11–16goals 2–1
- Savard – Werenski13:18
xG 0.56–0.76 (42%)attempts 14–15goals 0–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Krejci – Spooner10:46
xG 0.69–0.25 (73%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:27
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Beleskey – Nash – Czarnik9:18
xG 0.45–0.09 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Moore – Hayes – Schaller10:32
xG 0.28–0.49 (36%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo16:47
xG 1.16–0.18 (87%)attempts 22–10goals 3–0
- McQuaid – Krug15:01
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Liles – Carlo2:07
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).