Thu, Nov 10, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Anaheim Ducks 4, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 312 | 16 | 427 |
| CAR | 011 | 111 | 18 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:46ANARyan KeslerAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 9:30ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Cam Fowler, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–0
- P2 12:36ANAJakob SilfverbergGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 14:58CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Sebastian Aho · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 3:15CARVictor RaskAssists: Jeff Skinner, Lee Stempniak · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:34ANARyan KeslerENAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:29ANAKevin Bieksa: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:55CARViktor Stalberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:58CARJeff Skinner: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:43ANAJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:43CARViktor Stalberg: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:34CARLee Stempniak: Interference2 min
- P3 13:39ANAJonathan Bernier: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Cramarossa – Ritchie6:12
xG 0.73–0.17 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:59
xG 0.65–0.15 (82%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Wagner – Sgarbossa – Garbutt5:11
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ritchie3:59
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson14:00
xG 0.76–0.20 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Stoner – Vatanen12:28
xG 0.77–0.30 (72%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Lindholm14:04
xG 0.36–0.57 (39%)attempts 9–17goals 2–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom4:34
xG 0.38–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Staal – Di Giuseppe7:14
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Teravainen – Aho2:16
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Di Giuseppe – Teravainen5:16
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce13:35
xG 0.85–0.08 (91%)attempts 14–3goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Slavin2:20
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Dahlbeck – Murphy10:15
xG 0.13–0.69 (16%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).