Thu, Nov 10, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Los Angeles Kings 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 06 | 07 | 111 | 124 |
| MTL | 213 | 15 | 15 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:48MTLPaul ByronAssists: Alexander Radulov, Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 13:53MTLDaniel CarrGWGAssists: Andrei Markov, Torrey Mitchell · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 9:37MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Jeff Petry, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 11:57LAKTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 18:11MTLAlex GalchenyukENAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:56LAKMatt Greene: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:18MTLJeff Petry: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 15:04MTLPhillip Danault: Holding2 min
- P3 7:33LAKDustin Brown: Holding2 min
- P3 9:17MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 15:52MTLAndrei Markov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Galchenyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Clifford – Shore6:09
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Purcell – Pearson11:35
xG 0.17–0.28 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli8:55
xG 0.05–0.32 (14%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Brown – Setoguchi – Dowd10:50
xG 0.34–0.64 (34%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez14:05
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Doughty – Forbort15:37
xG 0.44–0.46 (48%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Martinez – Gravel2:02
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Gallagher – Andrighetto10:00
xG 0.45–0.17 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Shaw – Danault11:20
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Flynn – Carr7:27
xG 0.11–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Radulov – Byron – Galchenyuk10:38
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Emelin15:41
xG 0.58–0.05 (92%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Markov – Petry16:11
xG 0.72–0.33 (69%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Beaulieu – Hanley12:51
xG 0.48–0.42 (53%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).