Thu, Nov 10, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Dallas Stars 4, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 210 | 04 | 28 | 422 |
| CGY | 010 | 210 | 011 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:31DALLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Radek Faksa · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 15:35DALJamie BennAssists: John Klingberg, Radek Faksa · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 1:33CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Brett Kulak, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 3:31CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Brett Kulak, Michael Frolik · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 7:20DALJamie BennPPGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
- P3 19:06DALAntoine RousselENAssists: Justin Dowling · Wrist, 0.55 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:20CGYTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:20DALGemel Smith: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:20DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:38DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:38CGYMicheal Ferland: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:36CGYAlex Chiasson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:21CGYTroy Brouwer: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:32CGYAlex Chiasson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:51DALJustin Dowling: Delaying game bench2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Eaves – Roussel – Seguin11:08
xG 0.25–0.22 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Benn – Faksa13:26
xG 0.43–0.44 (49%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- McKenzie – Ritchie – Shore5:57
xG 0.23–0.38 (37%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Cracknell – Dowling – Smith9:48
xG 0.33–0.86 (28%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Benn – Oleksiak11:04
xG 0.43–0.53 (45%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Klingberg14:53
xG 0.31–0.81 (28%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- Oduya – Johns13:11
xG 0.26–0.76 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Gaudreau – Monahan12:05
xG 1.27–0.05 (96%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Stajan – Vey – Hamilton2:57
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Stajan – Brouwer – Vey4:52
xG 0.03–0.01 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Ferland9:20
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokipakka – Hamilton11:28
xG 1.61–0.62 (72%)attempts 15–8goals 0–2
- Giordano – Brodie18:13
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Engelland – Kulak19:01
xG 0.52–0.74 (41%)attempts 16–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).