Fri, Nov 11, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Los Angeles Kings 1, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 014 | 110 | 09 | 133 |
| OTT | 08 | 010 | 215 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:56LAKDwight KingAssists: Jeff Carter, Teddy Purcell · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 16:06OTTZack SmithAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.30 xG1–1
- P3 19:53OTTMark StoneGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.50 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:33OTTKyle Turris: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:01OTTZack Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:34LAKJake Muzzin: Interference2 min
- P2 9:12LAKDustin Brown: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:36LAKTrevor Lewis: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Kelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Purcell – Pearson8:24
xG 0.26–0.03 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Shore6:15
xG 0.10–0.22 (32%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Setoguchi – Dowd10:24
xG 0.19–0.51 (28%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli10:48
xG 0.15–0.92 (14%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Gravel10:10
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort19:05
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez14:49
xG 0.26–1.52 (14%)attempts 10–21goals 1–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Stone – Pageau11:26
xG 1.26–0.11 (92%)attempts 20–5goals 2–0
- Pyatt – Turris – Dzingel8:01
xG 0.58–0.23 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Neil – Kelly – Puempel4:34
xG 0.03–0.03 (44%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Brassard – Hoffman13:04
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Karlsson3:51
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci13:02
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson18:47
xG 0.57–0.42 (58%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).