Fri, Nov 11, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Washington Capitals 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 28 | 013 | 06 | 11 | 328 |
| CHI | 113 | 08 | 113 | 00 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17WSHJay BeagleSHAssists: T.J. Oshie, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 6:39CHIBrian CampbellPPAssists: Marian Hossa, Gustav Forsling · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 14:44WSHJay BeagleAssists: Daniel Winnik, John Carlson · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:37CHIMarian HossaAssists: Artemi Panarin, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 2:20WSHMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (2)
- P1 5:38WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:10WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Williams – Eller – Burakovsky13:25
xG 0.48–0.48 (50%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Johansson – Kuznetsov – Wilson13:59
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Sanford6:01
xG 0.33–0.52 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom13:53
xG 0.65–1.35 (32%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Niskanen – Alzner17:46
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Orpik – Chorney12:23
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov18:36
xG 1.08–1.68 (39%)attempts 23–20goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Kruger – Panarin14:09
xG 1.46–0.27 (85%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Hinostroza – Hartman5:44
xG 0.57–0.12 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Hartman3:07
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Panik – Rasmussen9:08
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson14:19
xG 1.25–0.19 (87%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Kempny15:44
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Campbell – Forsling13:00
xG 0.61–0.50 (55%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).