Fri, Nov 11, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 28 | 02 | 01 | 218 |
| COL | 09 | 28 | 08 | 14 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:03COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 9:33COLRene BourqueAssists: Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 13:27WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 16:00WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 1:23COLRene BourqueGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:31COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:31WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:28WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:47WPGMark Scheifele: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:29COLEric Gelinas: Interference2 min
- P2 5:38WPGBen Chiarot: Holding2 min
- P2 9:58COLJohn Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P2 15:30COLFedor Tyutin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:20COLCarl Soderberg: Interference2 min
- P3 8:23COLNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:40COLCody McLeod: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:01WPGAdam Lowry: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:54WPGJosh Morrissey: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grigorenko won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Petan – Connor4:15
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Dano2:36
xG 0.10–0.10 (49%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Petan – Ehlers4:23
xG 0.08–0.13 (39%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev6:57
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Byfuglien – Trouba2:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Trouba5:42
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Trouba7:36
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – MacKinnon – Rantanen7:50
xG 0.28–0.07 (79%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Colborne3:34
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen3:43
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Bourque – Landeskog6:06
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Zadorov10:10
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Tyutin2:40
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Gelinas6:36
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).