Fri, Nov 11, 2016·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Dallas Stars 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 213 | 114 | 03 | 330 |
| EDM | 215 | 015 | 012 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28DALLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 3:37EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Jordan Eberle, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
- P1 4:51DALPatrick EavesPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 19:31EDMTyler PitlickUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 15:00DALAntoine RousselGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Patrick Eaves · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:17EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 4:17DALCurtis McKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:43EDMAdam Larsson: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 4:59EDMBenoit Pouliot: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 5:41DALLauri Korpikoski: Interference2 min
- P1 9:28EDMPatrick Maroon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:00DALPatrick Eaves: Interference2 min
- P2 4:58EDMPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:33DALJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Roussel – Seguin9:36
xG 1.06–0.49 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- McKenzie – Ritchie – Shore4:43
xG 0.44–0.40 (53%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Cracknell – Dowling – Smith7:57
xG 0.19–0.54 (26%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Benn – Faksa13:07
xG 0.55–1.02 (35%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Benn3:06
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Benn – Oleksiak10:44
xG 0.92–0.70 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Oduya – Johns11:56
xG 0.37–0.50 (43%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Eberle – McDavid13:42
xG 1.61–0.92 (64%)attempts 20–9goals 1–2
- Pouliot – Nugent-Hopkins – Slepyshev2:06
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Letestu – Lander – Slepyshev3:43
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi8:38
xG 0.26–0.28 (49%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Benning12:58
xG 1.36–0.16 (89%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Gryba – Nurse14:36
xG 1.20–0.85 (59%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Larsson – Klefbom14:39
xG 0.73–1.58 (32%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).