Sat, Nov 12, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Islanders 2, Florida Panthers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 110 | 17 | 04 | 00 | 221 |
| FLA | 014 | 014 | 211 | 14 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:38NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Calvin de Haan, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 9:54NYINick LeddyPPAssists: John Tavares, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 8:56FLAKyle RauAssists: Mike Matheson, Derek MacKenzie · Snap, 0.31 xG2–1
- P3 19:46FLAJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 4:14FLADenis MalginGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:57FLAJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:43FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:43NYIRyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:52NYIJason Chimera: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:09FLAAlexander Petrovic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:37FLAJonathan Marchessault: Interference2 min
- P2 11:05FLAJussi Jokinen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:40NYIBrock Nelson: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:02NYIRyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:53NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:28FLAMike Matheson: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:11FLAKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
- OT 0:36NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Lee – Nelson7:53
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Ladd – Kulemin – Cizikas8:39
xG 0.06–0.35 (14%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Prince – Strome – Beauvillier6:03
xG 0.01–0.47 (3%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Bailey – Tavares9:36
xG 0.08–1.01 (8%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Boychuk – Hickey11:52
xG 0.30–0.80 (27%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – de Haan13:55
xG 0.17–0.79 (18%)attempts 6–16goals 1–1
- Leddy – Pelech12:06
xG 0.03–0.89 (3%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – McKegg – Rau7:26
xG 0.78–0.01 (98%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Jagr – Jokinen – Barkov8:34
xG 0.67–0.01 (98%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Trocheck – Marchessault9:47
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck3:06
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Ekblad2:38
xG 0.77–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Matheson9:08
xG 0.86–0.17 (83%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Yandle – Demers14:58
xG 0.54–0.08 (88%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).