Sat, Nov 12, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Minnesota Wild 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 17 | 013 | 227 |
| PHI | 117 | 112 | 17 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Charlie Coyle, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 12:27PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Brandon Manning, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 11:22MINMikael GranlundAssists: Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 17:45PHIMichael Del ZottoAssists: Michael Raffl · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 8:43PHIBrayden SchennPPGWGAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:04MINJason Zucker: Interference2 min
- P2 6:38MINEric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:57PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:31MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:35PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Haula – Graovac2:47
xG 0.39–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Coyle – Niederreiter13:39
xG 0.42–0.17 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Haula – Zucker – Bertschy5:43
xG 0.02–0.03 (45%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stewart – Zucker – Graovac2:14
xG 0.09–0.14 (41%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Folin13:29
xG 0.65–0.26 (71%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon10:01
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Reilly3:30
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRead – Raffl – Bellemare9:30
xG 0.29–0.15 (67%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – Weise – Cousins6:51
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Konecny12:07
xG 0.15–0.40 (27%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn8:58
xG 0.14–0.94 (13%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Del Zotto – Gostisbehere12:53
xG 0.37–0.39 (48%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Manning – Gudas17:19
xG 0.33–0.42 (44%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Streit – Provorov13:51
xG 0.19–0.57 (25%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).