Sat, Nov 12, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 1, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 16 | 010 | 05 | 121 |
| CAR | 216 | 215 | 17 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:02WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Matt Niskanen · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 12:37CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jordan Staal, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 17:01CARTeuvo TeravainenGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 5:59CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 10:37CARVictor RaskAssists: Klas Dahlbeck, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–4
- P3 16:10CARSebastian AhoENAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jordan Staal · Tip-in, 0.73 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:30WSHMatt Niskanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:36WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:17CARKlas Dahlbeck: Holding2 min
- P2 12:47WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:48CARElias Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P3 2:48WSHTom Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:46WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:17WSHMatt Niskanen: Interference2 min
- P3 16:28CARKlas Dahlbeck: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:36WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Johansson – Kuznetsov3:37
xG 0.29–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson2:12
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Beagle – Connolly – Sanford4:01
xG 0.12–0.37 (25%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Johansson – Kuznetsov – Wilson3:44
xG 0.04–0.31 (12%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Orlov11:51
xG 0.32–0.66 (33%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner11:25
xG 0.25–0.63 (28%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Orlov2:27
xG 0.14–0.69 (17%)attempts 1–4goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Teravainen – Aho9:07
xG 1.05–0.10 (91%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- McGinn – Lindholm – Ryan6:58
xG 0.31–0.13 (70%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- McClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom6:09
xG 0.24–0.24 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Stempniak – Skinner – Rask13:29
xG 0.74–0.75 (50%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlbeck – Tennyson10:32
xG 1.41–0.16 (90%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Hanifin13:44
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce12:28
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).