Sat, Nov 12, 2016·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
St. Louis Blues 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 19 | 117 | 211 | 437 |
| CBJ | 39 | 410 | 111 | 830 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:34CBJSam GagnerAssists: Scott Hartnell, Lukas Sedlak · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 6:35STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, David Perron · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 6:43CBJNick FolignoAssists: Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 15:10CBJAlexander WennbergAssists: Brandon Saad, Nick Foligno · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 5:18CBJSam GagnerAssists: Scott Hartnell, Lukas Sedlak · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–4
- P2 5:56CBJBrandon DubinskyGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson, Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.15 xG1–5
- P2 10:52CBJMarkus NutivaaraAssists: Cam Atkinson, Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.10 xG1–6
- P2 13:30CBJWilliam KarlssonAssists: David Savard, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–7
- P2 15:56STLRobby FabbriPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jori Lehtera · Snap, 0.21 xG2–7
- P3 0:21STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, David Perron · Snap, 0.05 xG3–7
- P3 2:53CBJZach WerenskiPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.09 xG3–8
- P3 6:23STLRobby FabbriPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, David Perron · Snap, 0.13 xG4–8
Penalties (15)
- P1 5:45CBJLukas Sedlak: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 17:49STLNail Yakupov: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:42CBJDavid Savard: Interference2 min
- P2 15:07CBJJack Johnson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:49CBJRyan Murray: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:26STLPetteri Lindbohm: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:05CBJZach Werenski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:38STLAlexander Steen: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:38CBJDavid Savard: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:58CBJMatt Calvert: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:58STLPetteri Lindbohm: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:31CBJBoone Jenner: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:31STLDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:50STLRobby Fabbri: Holding2 min
- P3 14:50CBJNick Foligno: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri9:03
xG 0.85–0.43 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Stastny – Perron – Jaskin7:46
xG 0.33–0.05 (87%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Stastny – Perron – Yakupov3:57
xG 0.02–0.01 (59%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Upshall – Brodziak – Jaskin3:36
xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko8:49
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson12:26
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Parayko – Lindbohm5:30
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner10:08
xG 0.63–0.38 (63%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Sedlak8:36
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg9:49
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson11:50
xG 0.17–0.65 (20%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProut – Nutivaara10:26
xG 0.72–0.47 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 3–0
- Johnson – Murray14:27
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Savard – Werenski13:49
xG 0.25–0.64 (28%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).