Sat, Nov 12, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Rangers 4, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 29 | 211 | 08 | 428 |
| CGY | 010 | 010 | 116 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:32NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 11:59NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 9:26NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Ryan McDonagh, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 14:22NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–0
- P3 11:12CGYMicheal FerlandPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Dennis Wideman · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:48CGYMicheal Ferland: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:06NYRChris Kreider: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:23CGYMatt Stajan: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:25NYRDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:36NYRDan Girardi: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Zuccarello – Zibanejad – Buchnevich12:33
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Grabner – Pirri – Fast8:28
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider8:49
xG 0.32–0.50 (39%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Hayes – Miller – Vesey10:38
xG 0.21–0.51 (30%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Skjei15:20
xG 0.71–0.54 (57%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Girardi – McDonagh15:33
xG 0.33–0.75 (30%)attempts 9–21goals 2–0
- Klein – Holden16:01
xG 0.31–0.90 (26%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Gaudreau – Monahan11:35
xG 0.64–0.16 (80%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Ferland – Bennett2:10
xG 0.49–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Gaudreau – Monahan2:22
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Stajan – Brouwer – Bennett10:05
xG 0.13–0.15 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Giordano14:00
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton4:29
xG 0.49–0.11 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie3:46
xG 0.30–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).