Sun, Nov 13, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Boston Bruins 2, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 112 | 024 | 110 | 246 |
| COL | 07 | 06 | 08 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:30BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: David Backes, Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 19:32BOSDominic MooreENAssists: David Krejci · Slap, 0.64 xG2–0
Penalties (4)
- P2 18:21COLErik Johnson: Interference2 min
- P3 5:36COLCarl Soderberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:54BOSBrandon Carlo: Holding2 min
- P3 19:51BOSMatt Beleskey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak13:54
xG 0.61–0.14 (81%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Moore – Hayes – Kuraly7:56
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Backes – Krejci – Spooner11:23
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Beleskey – Nash – Czarnik12:03
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo19:07
xG 0.87–0.41 (68%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug14:48
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Liles – Morrow14:08
xG 0.14–0.25 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Grigorenko – Martinsen6:15
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Bourque – Greer11:27
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Mitchell – McLeod – Colborne6:07
xG 0.07–0.12 (38%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen15:25
xG 0.25–0.76 (25%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tyutin – Barrie14:06
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barrie3:28
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Gelinas11:54
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).