Tue, Nov 15, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 19 | 18 | 00 | 1 | 326 |
| PHI | 110 | 116 | 08 | 01 | 0 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:14PHINick CousinsUnassisted · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 7:09OTTMark StoneAssists: Marc Methot · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 13:18PHIMichael RafflAssists: Dale Weise, Michael Del Zotto · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 18:01OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Nick Cousins stopped
- 2. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 5. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 6. OTT Ryan Dzingel stopped
- 7. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
- 8. OTT Mark Stone stopped
- 9. PHI Brayden Schenn stopped
- 10. OTT Erik Karlsson scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:36OTTBobby Ryan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:11PHIMark Streit: Interference2 min
- P2 18:50OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 1:41OTTMike Hoffman: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:57OTTMatt Puempel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:05PHIBrayden Schenn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Bellemare
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Stone – Pageau4:23
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Brassard – Hoffman3:44
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brassard – Hoffman – Stone4:42
xG 0.26–0.23 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel9:55
xG 0.55–0.53 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Karlsson2:18
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci12:53
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson16:07
xG 0.86–0.80 (52%)attempts 19–21goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Raffl – Bellemare2:12
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – Weise – Cousins7:09
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Read – Raffl – Bellemare9:08
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Konecny11:00
xG 0.38–0.52 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Provorov15:01
xG 0.60–0.27 (69%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Gostisbehere12:33
xG 0.70–0.89 (44%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Manning – Gudas13:51
xG 0.40–0.71 (36%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).