Tue, Nov 15, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Buffalo Sabres 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 08 | 07 | 124 |
| STL | 113 | 011 | 37 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:55BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 10:58STLRobby FabbriPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 0:44STLJaden SchwartzGWGAssists: Dmitrij Jaskin, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P3 2:19STLKyle BrodziakAssists: Ryan Reaves, Colton Parayko · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 18:34STLScottie UpshallENAssists: David Perron, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.70 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:37STLScottie Upshall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:49BUFNick Baptiste: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 14:38STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:23STLRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:52BUFJosh Gorges: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:52STLRobby Fabbri: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:55STLAlex Pietrangelo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Lehtera
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Girgensons – Carrier6:52
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Moulson – Girgensons – Rodrigues3:00
xG 0.09–0.06 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – Kane – Reinhart14:28
xG 0.50–0.63 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Grant – Baptiste – Rodrigues4:08
xG 0.07–0.25 (21%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen6:55
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Franson – McCabe12:45
xG 0.70–0.76 (48%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Gorges – Ristolainen13:30
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Schwartz – Jaskin6:30
xG 0.74–0.10 (88%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves7:22
xG 0.45–0.20 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Berglund – Perron – Jaskin4:48
xG 0.11–0.18 (39%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri10:56
xG 0.16–0.28 (37%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Gunnarsson13:43
xG 0.76–0.24 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Parayko – Lindbohm12:22
xG 0.55–0.43 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo18:57
xG 0.53–0.74 (41%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).