Tue, Nov 15, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 1, Minnesota Wild 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 013 | 07 | 127 |
| MIN | 010 | 09 | 08 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:05CGYJohnny GaudreauPPGWGAssists: Mark Giordano · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:24MINMike Reilly: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:28MINChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:28CGYDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00CGYDougie Hamilton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:18MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:29MINJonas Brodin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:37CGYSean Monahan: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:53MINRyan Suter: Interference2 min
- P2 13:26CGYMatt Stajan: Interference2 min
- P3 0:19MINEric Staal: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:55CGYGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:55MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:55MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Hamilton – Ferland – Hathaway8:12
xG 0.09–0.19 (31%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Gaudreau – Monahan7:15
xG 0.05–0.16 (22%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Stajan – Chiasson – Bennett8:54
xG 0.11–0.24 (30%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk11:33
xG 0.15–1.05 (13%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Giordano – Hamilton12:44
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Engelland – Kulak8:59
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie18:42
xG 0.14–1.10 (12%)attempts 10–27goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Coyle – Niederreiter10:37
xG 0.93–0.03 (96%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Stewart – Graovac – Mitchell6:28
xG 0.36–0.07 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Haula6:16
xG 0.29–0.04 (87%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Granlund4:21
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Dumba12:44
xG 0.74–0.12 (86%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon16:01
xG 0.72–0.20 (79%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Brodin – Folin11:18
xG 0.35–0.07 (84%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).