Tue, Nov 15, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New Jersey Devils 2, Dallas Stars 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 016 | 08 | 11 | 233 |
| DAL | 19 | 07 | 08 | 00 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:40NJDDamon SeversonAssists: PA Parenteau, Beau Bennett · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 10:33DALPatrick EavesAssists: Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- OT 0:44NJDAdam HenriqueGWGAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.22 xG2–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:56NJDPA Parenteau: Interference2 min
- P3 2:05DALStephen Johns: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:13NJDTravis Zajac: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Zajac – Bennett14:22
xG 0.76–0.45 (63%)attempts 25–11goals 1–1
- Henrique – Palmieri – Zacha12:50
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Kalinin – Lappin12:07
xG 0.55–0.53 (51%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Josefson – Smith-Pelly – Boucher8:21
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson16:54
xG 0.98–0.34 (74%)attempts 25–15goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Moore2:13
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Auvitu12:03
xG 0.42–0.54 (44%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCracknell – McKenzie – Ritchie6:50
xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Spezza – Shore – Smith8:42
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Cracknell – McKenzie – Smith2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Korpikoski – Shore3:57
xG 0.08–0.17 (32%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Nemeth14:52
xG 0.71–0.66 (52%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
- Oduya – Johns17:21
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Klingberg15:11
xG 0.29–0.92 (24%)attempts 17–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).