Tue, Nov 15, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 012 | 111 | 010 | 133 |
| COL | 012 | 210 | 28 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:10COLPatrick WierciochAssists: Carl Soderberg · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 1:32COLRene BourqueGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Patrick Wiercioch · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 19:29LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Nic Dowd, Devin Setoguchi · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 11:32COLBlake ComeauAssists: Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 18:23COLGabriel LandeskogENAssists: Andreas Martinsen, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.69 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:38LAKTrevor Lewis: High sticking2 min
- P1 3:25COLJarome Iginla: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:06LAKDevin Setoguchi: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:56COLBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:20LAKDerek Forbort: Holding2 min
- P1 16:41LAKKevin Gravel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:03COLTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:47COLJohn Mitchell: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:25COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:25LAKKevin Gravel: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Setoguchi – Dowd8:26
xG 0.59–0.19 (75%)attempts 15–4goals 0–3
- Clifford – Nolan – Shore8:32
xG 0.08–0.09 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lewis – Purcell – King8:55
xG 0.07–0.45 (14%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson10:04
xG 0.17–0.71 (19%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez12:56
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 14–7goals 0–2
- Doughty – Forbort15:41
xG 0.59–0.77 (43%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Gravel9:21
xG 0.10–0.56 (15%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Mitchell – Comeau7:44
xG 0.51–0.05 (90%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Colborne – Landeskog – MacKinnon9:22
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- McLeod – Grigorenko – Martinsen3:47
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Bourque – Rantanen10:34
xG 0.27–0.70 (28%)attempts 6–18goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Zadorov12:02
xG 0.49–0.12 (81%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson10:36
xG 0.45–0.09 (84%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Barrie12:57
xG 0.58–0.62 (48%)attempts 12–20goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).