Tue, Nov 15, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 1, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 011 | 118 | 06 | 135 |
| ANA | 110 | 29 | 18 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13ANANick RitchieAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 2:23ANACam FowlerGWGAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, John Gibson · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 7:51ANARyan KeslerPPAssists: Corey Perry, Sami Vatanen · Tip-in, 0.38 xG0–3
- P2 18:14EDMLeon DraisaitlUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 9:00ANAAntoine VermetteAssists: Joseph Cramarossa, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:03EDMZack Kassian: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:38ANAAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:58ANAClayton Stoner: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:13EDMBenoit Pouliot: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:23EDMJordan Eberle: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 1:23ANAJosh Manson: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:01ANAJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:01EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 7:01EDMZack Kassian: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:25ANAAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:33ANAAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Slepyshev8:38
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Kassian – Draisaitl9:11
xG 0.57–0.45 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Letestu – Lander – Slepyshev3:07
xG 0.08–0.02 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Lucic – Pitlick – Nugent-Hopkins4:41
xG 0.13–0.13 (51%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom14:21
xG 0.94–0.49 (66%)attempts 24–9goals 0–0
- Gryba – Nurse13:33
xG 0.45–0.05 (89%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Sekera – Nurse3:12
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:38
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ritchie12:02
xG 0.57–0.61 (48%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Boll – Sgarbossa – Garbutt3:57
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Vermette – Cramarossa – Rakell11:16
xG 0.45–0.69 (39%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm12:25
xG 0.60–0.29 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Bieksa – Stoner12:55
xG 0.05–0.34 (13%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Fowler10:38
xG 0.37–0.74 (33%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).