Wed, Nov 16, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Washington Capitals 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 06 | 18 | 126 |
| WSH | 316 | 113 | 310 | 739 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:32WSHT.J. OshieSHAssists: Jay Beagle · Backhand, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 17:30WSHNicklas BackstromGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Matt Niskanen · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 19:52WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.31 xG0–3
- P2 5:19WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 5:37WSHJustin WilliamsPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–5
- P3 10:26WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–6
- P3 16:28PITPhil KesselAssists: Nick Bonino, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–6
- P3 16:58WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Nate Schmidt, Brooks Orpik · Snap, 0.10 xG1–7
Penalties (16)
- P1 6:48WSHBrett Connolly: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:18WSHMarcus Johansson: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:18PITPhil Kessel: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:36PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:36PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:36WSHKarl Alzner: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:34WSHJustin Williams: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:07PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:12PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:09WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:19PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:34PITConor Sheary: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00PITTom Sestito: Misconduct10 min
- P3 3:42PITKris Letang: Delaying game smothering puck2 min · PPG
- P3 5:11PITBrian Dumoulin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:10WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Rust9:21
xG 1.04–0.30 (78%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Sheary9:01
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
- Kessel – Bonino – Hagelin7:35
xG 0.51–0.41 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 1–2
- Cullen – Fehr – Sestito3:05
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz9:42
xG 1.02–0.24 (81%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin9:36
xG 0.76–0.65 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 0–4
- Schultz – Dumoulin2:46
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Eller – Connolly7:14
xG 0.36–0.04 (89%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Johansson7:37
xG 0.53–0.52 (51%)attempts 11–5goals 3–0
- Beagle – Wilson – Sanford8:19
xG 0.10–0.31 (24%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky9:59
xG 0.40–1.32 (23%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov13:40
xG 1.05–0.49 (68%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Orpik – Schmidt11:11
xG 0.70–0.90 (44%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Alzner11:15
xG 0.21–0.79 (21%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).