Thu, Nov 17, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Winnipeg Jets 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 09 | 212 | 011 | 232 |
| PHI | 25 | 19 | 28 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:13PHISean CouturierAssists: Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 9:47PHIMichael RafflAssists: Matt Read, Radko Gudas · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 6:57WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Nic Petan, Marko Dano · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 12:58PHIMark StreitGWGAssists: Ivan Provorov, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 17:19WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 5:46PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 19:11PHIBrandon ManningENAssists: Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–5
Penalties (2)
- P1 4:31PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:22WPGChris Thorburn: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Dano – Petan7:41
xG 1.00–0.06 (94%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Howden – Burmistrov7:20
xG 0.24–0.01 (94%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Laine10:09
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers6:11
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Trouba18:47
xG 1.14–0.47 (71%)attempts 25–17goals 1–3
- Postma – Chiarot12:32
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Morrissey20:24
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 19–18goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRead – Raffl – Bellemare10:46
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – Weise – Cousins6:59
xG 0.18–0.07 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Voracek – Weise – Couturier4:15
xG 0.06–0.01 (81%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Konecny9:31
xG 0.15–0.60 (21%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- MacDonald – Del Zotto18:05
xG 0.49–0.59 (45%)attempts 17–21goals 1–1
- Manning – Gudas17:45
xG 0.47–0.75 (39%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
- Streit – Provorov16:16
xG 0.39–0.82 (32%)attempts 14–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).