Thu, Nov 17, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Florida Panthers 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 09 | 011 | 127 |
| TOR | 310 | 212 | 18 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:55TORConnor BrownAssists: Morgan Rielly, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 10:21FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jared McCann, Denis Malgin · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 15:36TORConnor BrownGWGAssists: Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 17:03TORMitch MarnerAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 7:45TORLeo KomarovAssists: Connor Brown, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 18:53TORJames van RiemsdykUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 17:05TORJake GardinerAssists: Connor Brown, Matt Martin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:01TORMitch Marner: Holding2 min
- P1 11:04FLADenis Malgin: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:36FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P2 8:36FLAAaron Ekblad: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:56TORNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
- P2 19:11FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P3 11:38TORRoman Polak: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:58TORJake Gardiner: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against MacKenzie
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Jagr – Barkov – McCann2:17
xG 0.09–0.09 (52%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Smith – Trocheck – Marchessault8:26
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 0–3
- Griffith – McCann – Malgin9:48
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – McKegg – Rau8:01
xG 0.00–0.42 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcIlrath – Matheson8:13
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Demers – Matheson3:54
xG 0.04–0.15 (22%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Ekblad11:40
xG 0.35–0.47 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews10:21
xG 1.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown10:47
xG 0.84–0.24 (78%)attempts 11–11goals 3–0
- Martin – Smith – Soshnikov5:51
xG 0.08–0.01 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:49
xG 0.32–0.64 (34%)attempts 5–15goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Carrick13:54
xG 1.43–0.12 (92%)attempts 19–5goals 3–0
- Rielly – Zaitsev15:24
xG 0.84–0.34 (71%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- Polak – Hunwick13:56
xG 0.23–0.53 (30%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).