Thu, Nov 17, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
San Jose Sharks 2, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 17 | 111 | 013 | 231 |
| STL | 14 | 29 | 012 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:16SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 10:38STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 8:45STLJaden SchwartzUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 9:04SJSKevin LabancAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 15:56STLDavid PerronPPGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:02STLDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:42STLDmitrij Jaskin: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 3:23SJSDavid Schlemko: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:52STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:29STLKyle Brodziak: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:57SJSMikkel Boedker: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Holding2 min
- P3 6:07STLRobby Fabbri: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:16SJSKevin Labanc: Interference2 min
- P3 19:04STLKyle Brodziak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lehtera won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Labanc12:58
xG 0.65–0.19 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Marleau – Wingels – Hertl4:50
xG 0.03–0.02 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Boedker – Nieto – Tierney4:47
xG 0.14–0.16 (48%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Ward – Couture – Donskoi8:33
xG 0.14–0.63 (18%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Dillon8:52
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Burns – Vlasic2:34
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun11:51
xG 0.40–0.26 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Brodziak – Reaves7:17
xG 0.62–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Berglund – Jaskin – Yakupov2:15
xG 0.21–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Berglund – Perron – Yakupov4:00
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Stastny – Schwartz – Jaskin6:34
xG 0.09–0.17 (34%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Gunnarsson10:34
xG 0.56–0.40 (58%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Parayko – Lindbohm8:57
xG 0.39–0.28 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo16:04
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).