Thu, Nov 17, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 116 | 114 | 236 |
| DAL | 36 | 010 | 06 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:15DALJohnny OduyaAssists: Lauri Korpikoski · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 10:19DALBrett RitchiePPAssists: Devin Shore, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 19:39DALPatrick EavesPPGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 12:06COLNathan MacKinnonSHAssists: Andreas Martinsen · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 1:51COLMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, A.J. Greer · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:49COLNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:46COLNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
- P1 19:14COLCody McLeod: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:37DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min
- P2 7:46DALTyler Seguin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:57COLCarl Soderberg: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:22COLPatrick Wiercioch: Delaying game2 min
- P3 5:53COLMikko Rantanen: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:53COLNikita Zadorov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Mitchell – Comeau10:12
xG 0.77–0.21 (78%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Bourque – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:10
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Greer – Martinsen4:48
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Bourque – Rantanen5:43
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Barrie3:52
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Barrie11:32
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Johnson13:33
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Cracknell – McKenzie – Ritchie3:45
xG 0.06–0.03 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin4:22
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Faksa9:50
xG 0.32–0.49 (40%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Spezza – Roussel – Faksa2:15
xG 0.01–0.20 (7%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamhuis – Klingberg13:03
xG 0.30–0.48 (39%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
- Benn – Nemeth12:57
xG 0.48–0.70 (41%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Oduya – Johns15:39
xG 0.09–0.94 (9%)attempts 8–25goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).