Thu, Nov 17, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
New Jersey Devils 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 08 | 29 | 012 | 229 |
| ANA | 08 | 29 | 16 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:32NJDDevante Smith-PellyAssists: Kyle Quincey, John Moore · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 14:09NJDKyle QuinceyAssists: Pavel Zacha, Adam Henrique · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 17:24ANARickard RakellAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 17:40ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Korbinian Holzer · Slap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 16:20ANARyan KeslerGWGAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Josh Manson · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:48NJDAdam Henrique: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:07NJDBeau Bennett: Interference2 min
- P2 5:20ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P3 4:35ANAJosh Manson: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:31ANAJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJosefson – Smith-Pelly – Boucher7:28
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Kalinin – Lappin11:27
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Henrique – Bennett2:29
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Palmieri – Zacha9:14
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Merrill10:17
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Quincey – Moore15:32
xG 0.93–0.68 (58%)attempts 25–11goals 2–1
- Greene – Lovejoy3:43
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg12:23
xG 0.95–0.40 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ritchie7:19
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Vermette – Cramarossa – Rakell2:35
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell6:43
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm14:30
xG 1.11–0.54 (67%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Vatanen – Fowler15:16
xG 0.65–0.68 (49%)attempts 12–23goals 1–1
- Bieksa – Holzer11:59
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).