Fri, Nov 18, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19 | 19 | 16 | 324 |
| CGY | 011 | 29 | 010 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:42CHIRyan HartmanAssists: Artem Anisimov · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 3:33CGYSam BennettAssists: Sean Monahan, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 7:03CGYSean MonahanAssists: Sam Bennett, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 14:34CHIBrent SeabrookPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 17:37CHIMarian HossaGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Michal Kempny · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:53CHIJordin Tootoo: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:36CHIMarcus Kruger: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:20CHIMarian Hossa: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:35CGYMatthew Tkachuk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:15CHINick Schmaltz: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:51CHIArtem Anisimov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Anisimov – Panarin11:40
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Desjardins – Schmaltz3:36
xG 0.03–0.01 (63%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kruger – Hartman – Rasmussen5:54
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kruger – Rasmussen – Schmaltz5:04
xG 0.08–0.10 (45%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Kempny12:16
xG 1.23–0.24 (84%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – Forsling10:02
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Campbell – Forsling3:47
xG 0.07–0.09 (45%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Monahan – Bennett13:27
xG 1.42–0.31 (82%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Stajan – Chiasson – Vey6:25
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Stajan – Chiasson – Ferland2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Ferland – Hathaway9:38
xG 0.21–0.55 (28%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton16:36
xG 1.07–0.83 (56%)attempts 20–16goals 0–0
- Engelland – Kulak13:52
xG 0.32–0.48 (40%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie17:47
xG 0.23–0.83 (22%)attempts 8–20goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).