Sat, Nov 19, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 16 | 19 | 13 | 318 |
| PHI | 012 | 07 | 013 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:25TBLTyler JohnsonPPGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 7:40TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 4:26TBLJonathan DrouinAssists: Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.21 xG3–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:31TBLBraydon Coburn: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:56TBLNikita Kucherov: Interference2 min
- P1 13:06PHISean Couturier: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:30TBLTyler Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:37PHIRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:37TBLJT Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:15PHIMatt Read: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:46TBLAndrej Sustr: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 6:09TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:24TBLOndrej Palat: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:24PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Drouin3:06
xG 0.42–0.07 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Palat – Drouin5:28
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Point2:45
xG 0.02–0.01 (61%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Namestnikov4:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hedman – Sustr6:44
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Coburn – Nesterov2:11
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Garrison – Sustr2:05
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRead – Raffl – Bellemare7:29
xG 0.64–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Konecny8:35
xG 0.89–0.70 (56%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Weise – Schenn – Cousins2:08
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Weise – Cousins – Raffl2:48
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Provorov14:13
xG 1.20–0.47 (72%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Manning – Gostisbehere2:34
xG 0.13–0.04 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Manning – Gudas11:38
xG 0.12–0.28 (31%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).