Sat, Nov 19, 2016·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 5, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 211 | 25 | 114 | 530 |
| DAL | 011 | 212 | 010 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:57EDMConnor McDavidUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 11:36EDMTyler PitlickAssists: Drake Caggiula, Matt Hendricks · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 5:21EDMOscar KlefbomGWGAssists: Anton Slepyshev, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 6:17EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Matt Benning · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–0
- P2 15:37DALPatrick EavesPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P2 16:47DALJamie BennPPAssists: John Klingberg, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 6:51EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Anton Slepyshev · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:58EDMDarnell Nurse: Delaying game2 min
- P1 13:13EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:00EDMZack Kassian: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:00EDMZack Kassian: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 18:19DALTyler Seguin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:21DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:24EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Holding2 min
- P3 13:58DALAdam Cracknell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:36EDMPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins11:07
xG 0.85–0.76 (53%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Pitlick – Caggiula4:42
xG 0.14–0.13 (51%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Lucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi10:53
xG 0.58–0.63 (48%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Kassian – Slepyshev – Draisaitl7:41
xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom15:32
xG 0.92–0.64 (59%)attempts 17–15goals 2–0
- Benning – Nurse13:19
xG 0.42–0.65 (39%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Sekera – Russell13:27
xG 0.51–1.00 (34%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Roussel – Faksa6:19
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Sharp – Benn – Eakin3:25
xG 0.29–0.05 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin8:56
xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Korpikoski – Cracknell – Ritchie4:00
xG 0.18–0.24 (42%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Klingberg6:48
xG 0.48–0.04 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Klingberg2:41
xG 0.33–0.03 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Oduya – Klingberg6:55
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).