Sat, Nov 19, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 1, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 014 | 111 | 06 | 131 |
| STL | 013 | 19 | 212 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:09STLDavid PerronAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Jaden Schwartz · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 8:59NSHMike RibeiroPPAssists: Craig Smith, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 7:28STLKyle BrodziakGWGAssists: Scottie Upshall · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 11:36STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:33STLDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:29NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:52STLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:53NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min
- P2 19:57NSHViktor Arvidsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:16STLRobby Fabbri: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg8:53
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Fisher – Jarnkrok – Aberg7:53
xG 0.04–0.14 (23%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Neal – Johansen – Arvidsson12:06
xG 0.36–0.49 (42%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Bass – Watson – Sissons3:15
xG 0.02–0.19 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Josi – Ekholm2:19
xG 0.03–0.14 (18%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis14:18
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Weber – Irwin9:59
xG 0.29–0.52 (36%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Perron – Schwartz12:54
xG 1.01–0.27 (79%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Fabbri7:38
xG 0.43–0.15 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves8:46
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Berglund – Rattie – Jaskin5:37
xG 0.15–0.28 (34%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo19:13
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson13:12
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Parayko8:47
xG 0.37–0.44 (45%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).