Sat, Nov 19, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 020 | 08 | 39 | 337 |
| MIN | 121 | 111 | 011 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:32MINCharlie CoylePPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 6:34MINTyler GraovacAssists: Jonas Brodin, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 3:51COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 6:48COLCarl SoderbergPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–2
- P3 9:20COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:53COLBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:38COLJohn Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P1 19:10MINChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:12COLJohn Mitchell: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:43MINChristian Folin: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:43COLA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:20COLCarl Soderberg: Holding2 min
- P3 5:26MINChristian Folin: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Greer – Martinsen8:03
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Bourque – Rantanen8:10
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Comeau – Grigorenko2:17
xG 0.05–0.03 (61%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – MacKinnon – Rantanen3:15
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Gelinas6:47
xG 0.51–0.33 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Johnson3:00
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Barrie5:01
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Pominville – Granlund9:29
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Koivu – Granlund – Graovac2:21
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stewart – Haula – Zucker9:21
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Pominville – Haula – Zucker2:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba4:06
xG 0.11–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin2:29
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Reilly – Dumba6:54
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).