Sun, Nov 20, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Washington Capitals 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 012 | 14 | 27 | 323 |
| WSH | 19 | 14 | 08 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:11WSHNicklas BackstromUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 6:07CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 10:31WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 0:14CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Cam Atkinson, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 19:06CBJAlexander WennbergPPGWGAssists: Nick Foligno, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:59CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:59WSHBrett Connolly: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:54WSHBrett Connolly: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:15WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Holding2 min
- P2 8:47CBJBrandon Saad: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:21WSHNicklas Backstrom: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:21CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:26WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Gagner – Sedlak5:45
xG 0.44–0.12 (78%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Saad4:39
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner7:12
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Calvert – Karlsson – Anderson11:43
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Murray18:36
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Savard – Werenski18:20
xG 0.62–0.36 (63%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Harrington – Nutivaara9:54
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestCarey – Beagle – Wilson9:55
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Winnik – Connolly – Sanford7:33
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Williams – Backstrom – Johansson11:34
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky12:23
xG 0.21–0.42 (34%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner17:15
xG 0.64–0.22 (75%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Orpik – Schmidt15:01
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov15:48
xG 0.10–0.77 (12%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).