Sun, Nov 20, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 3, New York Rangers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 05 | 19 | 115 | 01 | 2 | 330 |
| NYR | 114 | 09 | 110 | 02 | 0 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:15NYRChris KreiderAssists: Derek Stepan, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 14:43FLAKeith YandlePPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 1:45NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jimmy Vesey · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 7:54FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jakub Kindl, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYR Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 2. FLA Vincent Trocheck scored
- 3. NYR Brandon Pirri stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:31FLAColton Sceviour: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:08FLAMike Matheson: Delaying game2 min
- P2 11:24FLAJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:17NYRBrady Skjei: Concealing puck2 min · PPG
- P2 15:49NYRKevin Hayes: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:20NYRBrady Skjei: Interference2 min
- P3 13:28NYRBrandon Pirri: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Rau – Malgin8:33
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Jagr – Jokinen – Barkov12:22
xG 0.46–0.53 (46%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – McKegg5:55
xG 0.05–0.15 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Trocheck – Marchessault12:23
xG 0.26–1.07 (20%)attempts 11–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson15:01
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Ekblad3:00
xG 0.02–0.03 (35%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Yandle – Demers14:18
xG 0.40–0.77 (34%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Zibanejad – Vesey10:44
xG 0.49–0.05 (91%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad2:54
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider11:02
xG 0.64–0.51 (56%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Pirri – Fast – Jooris6:54
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Holden14:36
xG 1.02–0.20 (84%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Klein – Skjei11:31
xG 0.56–0.50 (53%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Girardi – McDonagh17:07
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).