Sun, Nov 20, 2016·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Winnipeg Jets 1, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 011 | 08 | 110 | 129 |
| CAR | 118 | 07 | 215 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:45CARElias LindholmAssists: Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 2:39CARVictor RaskPPGWGAssists: Lee Stempniak, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.23 xG0–2
- P3 9:33WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 18:17CARNoah HanifinPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Teuvo Teravainen · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:11WPGChris Thorburn: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:26CARJoakim Nordstrom: Interference2 min
- P1 19:06WPGJacob Trouba: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:08CARNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:00WPGAndrew Copp: Interference2 min
- P2 12:56CARLee Stempniak: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:56WPGChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:20WPGDustin Byfuglien: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:20CARTeuvo Teravainen: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:20WPGMark Scheifele: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:50WPGMark Stuart: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:39WPGNic Petan: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:10CARViktor Stalberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:39WPGPatrik Laine: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Copp – Laine7:13
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Howden – Burmistrov3:22
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Dano – Petan – Tanev7:04
xG 0.05–0.14 (26%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers11:37
xG 0.76–0.91 (45%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Morrissey13:20
xG 0.86–0.69 (55%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Enstrom – Trouba12:08
xG 0.48–0.45 (52%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Stuart – Chiarot7:35
xG 0.13–0.38 (25%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRask – Teravainen – Lindholm7:43
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- McClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom7:09
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Stempniak – McGinn – Ryan4:27
xG 0.09–0.04 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Skinner – Aho9:57
xG 0.30–0.97 (24%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTennyson – Hanifin8:55
xG 0.41–0.12 (78%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Faulk13:31
xG 0.93–0.73 (56%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Tennyson2:11
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).